There’s good news and bad news in this week’s ACC Bubble Analysis. The ACC solidifying itself at the top, but for the first time I can only justify 4 ACC teams getting into the Big Dance if selections were made today. Here’s how it breaksdown.
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.
This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
(1) Duke (15-1) (2-1) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (4) Minnesota, * (8) Louisville, * (30) VCU, * (27) Ohio St, * (31) Temple, (94) Florida Gulf Coast, (68) Kentucky, (86) Santa Clara
Bad Losses -None
Notes – Duke finally lost a game, but the Blue Devils still have the best resume in college basketball. They are easily a number 1 seed.
(12) North Carolina State (14-2) (3-0) Projected Seed 3
Last 10 – (10-0)
Good Wins – * (16) Connecticut, * (49) Massachusetts, (74) Stanford, * (1) Duke
Bad Losses – None
Notes – NC State’s win over Duke was huge, now don’t have a letdown at Maryland.
(5) Miami (12-3) (3-0) Projected Seed 5
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – (60) UNC Charlotte, * (20) Michigan St., * (49) Massachusetts, * (40) LaSalle, * (43) North Carolina, (84) Detroit, (90) Maryland
Bas Losses – None
Notes – 7 top 100 wins… Please explain to me how Miami isn’t ranked again.
Bubble But In
(43) North Carolina (11-5) (1-2) Projected Seed 10
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (24) UNLV, (65) Florida State
Bad Losses – (145) Texas, * (154) Virginia
Notes – The win at Florida State keeps North Carolina in the tournament.
Bubble But Out
(65) Florida State (10-6) (2-1)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – (66) St. Josephs, * (33) BYU, (66) Charlotte, (90) Maryland
Bad Losses – * (213) South Alabama, * (169) Mercer, * (190) Auburn
Notes – Everytime I’m ready to Florida State put into the NCAAs, they do something to keep themselves out. The Noles really needed that home win over North Carolina. That said the Noles have plenty of games left to work themselves back into the Big Dance.
(90) Maryland (13-3) (1-2)
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – (93) Stony Brook
Bad Losses – None
Notes – When your best win of the season is Stony Brook, you don’t belong in the NCAAs.
(113) Wake Forest (9-6) (2-1)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – (91) Xavier
Bad Losses – (104) Iona
Notes – The fact that Wake Forest can even see the bubble is pretty amazing.
(130) Virginia Tech (10-6) (1-2)
Last 10 – (4-6)
Good Wins – * (35) Oklahoma St, (75) Iowa
Bad Losses – *(279) Georgia Southern, (100) Boston College
Notes – Outside of the loss to Georgia Southern the resume doesn’t really look that bad. If the Hokies can get back to playing the way they did in November and early December you never know.
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(100) Boston College (9-7) (1-2)
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – (98) Providence
Bad Losses – (113) Wake Forest, (114) Bryant, (118) Charleston
Notes – Boston College has lost 7 times this year, but do you really want to play them right now? Miami needs to be ready for their game at BC Wednesday.
(153) Georgia Tech (10-5) (0-3)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – (72) St. Marys.
Bad Losses – (130) Virginia Tech
Notes – The Yellow Jackets play hard, but they can’t score on air.
(154) Virginia (11-5) (1-2)
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – (99) Tennessee, (63) Wisconsin, * (43) North Carolina
Bad Losses – * (150) Delware, * (310) Old Dominion, * (170) Clemson, (113) Wake Forest, (123) George Mason
Notes – Look at all those RPI killing losses…
(170) Clemson (9-6) (1-2)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – (62) UTEP
Bad Losses – (146) Purdue, * (291) Coastal Carolina
Notes – Clemson is a tough out at home, and took care of Virginia on Saturday.
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