ACC Bubble Analysis for December 24, 2012

Well I hope you are enjoying Christmas Eve everyone! Got a quick post for you as we check in on the NCAA bubble before the Holidays. For all the people calling it a down year in the ACC, the ACC sits at 3rd in conference RPI, just behind the Mountain West and number 1 Big 10. The Mountain West?

Yea they can ball out there. Three RPI top 10 teams and 9 in the top 150. Yes the ACC is terrible this year… You know just because there’s only 1 elite team (Duke), doesn’t mean there isn’t depth there.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (11-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (12) Minnesota, * (8) Louisville, * (30) VCU, * (36) Ohio St, * (33) Temple,  (75) Florida Gulf Coast, (51) Kentucky

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Did you see Temple beat Syracuse? Duke beat them by 23.

(5) North Carolina State (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (26) Connecticut, * (28) Massachusetts, (52) Stanford

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State seems to have found itself. The Wolfpack’s computer numbers are great, and they now have 3 top 100 wins. The Wolfpack can still work themselves into a 2 or 3 seed with a good conference season.

(10) Miami (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (82) UNC Charlotte, * (31) Michigan St., * (28) Massachusetts

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – I watched Miami play Arizona. The Canes did not play well, but Arizona will be the number 1 seed out West. You can book that. They also were without Reggie Johnson in that one, though I doubt it would have made a difference. I’m not worried about Miami at this point.

(46) Maryland (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (47) George Mason, (81) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Maryland has played a very weak schedule. If they struggle in conference, they’ll have nothing to point to help their resume.

Bubble But In

(50) North Carolina (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (69) McNeese St.

Bad Losses – None

Notes –  UNC is going to be tough for the committee to evaluate. There are no quality wins, and no bad losses, and this year’s bubble is awful. Something I’ll have to go in detail soon. UNC must beat UNLV at home on the 29th.

Bubble But Out

(99) Georgia Tech (8-2) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (97) St. Mary’s

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Right at this stage in Brian Gregory’s rebuilding project the Jackets just need to keep beating opponents they are supposed to beat, and that’s what they are doing.

(130) Florida State (7-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (90) St. Josephs, * (38) BYU, (86) Charlotte

Bad Losses – * (229) South Alabama, * (184) Mercer

Notes – Only Duke has more top 100 wins in the ACC, so don’t write Florida State off yet.

(156) Virginia (9-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (59) Tennessee, (89) Farifield

Bad Losses – * (170) Delware, * (273) Old Dominion

Notes – Old Dominion beating Virginia this past week is one of the worst losses in the ACC this year.

(140) Virginia Tech (9-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (20) Oklahoma St,  (67) Iowa

Bad Losses – (111) West Virginia, *(235) Georgia Southern

Notes – No shame in losing to a good Colorado St. team. Losing by 36 though is… The Hokies are sinking fast, and the lack of depth is going to be a problem all year.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(124) Boston College (6-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (82) Providence

Bad Losses – * (192) Bryant, * (151) Harvard, (107) Charleston

Notes – It speaks to the depth of the ACC, that arguably the conference’s worst team has a top 100 win. That was a good win by BC over Providence.

(192) Clemson (7-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (97) UTEP

Bad Losses – * (201) Purdue, * (277) Coastal Carolina

Notes – The Tigers were still good enough to lead Arizona late in the 2nd half.

(199) Wake Forest (6-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  * (158) Iona

Notes –The Deacs had a 2-0 week! You have to start somewhere.

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