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Dec
09
2012

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 9, 2012

It’s never too early to begin looking at where your ACC is regards to the NCAA tournament, especially as we near conference play. Already several ACC teams have quality non-conference wins, which is what the committee looks at heavily. I’m expecting this year in the ACC to be as competitive as it’s been in years, and the quality depth goes 10 deep. Sorry Wake Forest and Boston College you are teams 11 and 12.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (9-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-0)

Good Wins – * (13) Minnesota, * (15) Louisville, * (24) Ohio St, * (27) Temple,  (42) Florida Gulf Coast, (93) Kentucky

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Most conferences would be happy with Duke’s resume come March. It’s that good. Honestly it would take a major collapse for Duke to not end up with a number 1 seed.

(12) North Carolina State (6-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-2)

Good Wins – * (17) Connecticut, (80) Massachusetts

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State really needed that UCONN win to give them at least 1 strong non-conference win to start the season. Nice computer numbers are helping the Wolfpack’s seeding.

(44) Miami (5-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (5-1)

Good Wins – (64) Michigan St., (80) Massachusetts

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – Since Durand Scott’s return Miami has looked liked Sweet 16 quality team. That Michigan St. win will look better and better as the season continues.

(49) North Carolina (6-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-2)

Good Wins – (79) Long Beach St.

Bad Losses – None

Notes – UNC probably sneaks into the tournament, but the resume needs work. There aren’t any really good wins to speak off right now despite a strong RPI.

Bubble But In

(87) Virginia Tech (7-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-1)

Good Wins – (33) Oklahoma St,  (68) Iowa

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Had the Hokies won at West Virginia, they would be in the lock category. The computer numbers aren’t great, but the a couple of good non-conferences help get them in.

(93) Maryland (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (8-1)

Good Wins – (66) Northwestern,  (85) George Mason

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Maryland is on 8 game winning streak with a couple of top 100 wins. That’s get puts you in the Big Dance today. You might be wondering how a team #93 in the RPI could make the NCAAs? 2-3 Northwestern St. is currently number 29. RPI’s are important but we are still identifying the best teams, we should still expect some shuffling there for a bit.

Bubble But Out

(53) Georgia Tech (6-2) 

Last 10 – (6-2)

Good Wins – (60) Mt. Saint Marys

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Right now the difference between Georgia Tech and Maryland and Virginia are the non-conferences wins. The Terps and Hokies just look a little bit better there.

(133) Virginia (8-2) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (133) Delware

Notes –  Virginia is a lot closer than it appears. They have won 7 games in a row and won at Wisconsin.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(137) Clemson (5-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (192) Purdue

Notes – Clemson is a scrappy team, but there’s not enough talent to get into the NCAA’s today or later when they have to navigate a rugged ACC.

(142) Florida State (5-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-4)

Good Wins – (73) St. Josephs, (76) BYU

Bad Losses – * (215) South Florida, * (241) Mercer

Notes – Florida State is going to be an interesting case to follow this year. Two top 100 wins offset by losses to South Florida and Mercer that they will be paying for all year. Of the 4 ACC teams with RPIs over 100, FSU is the one that could get back into the NCAA mix.

(176) Wake Forest (4-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (4-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (101) Richmond, * (215) Iona

Notes – Bzdelik was a questionable hire as head coach a few years ago. Now? The program is a train wreck.

(200) Boston College (4-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (4-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (112) College of Charleston, (132) Bryant, * (191) Harvard

Notes – Boston College is so bad, they will hurt other ACC teams RPIs.

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