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Nov
04
2012

My 1 hour BCS Computer Ranking versus the “expert” BCS Rankings.

In this really so difficult? On and on debate and after debate. Complicated computer algorithms that don’t seem to make any sense. In about 45 minutes I came up with my own computer rankings, that you could argue are as accurate as computer poll we use. It may even need a little tweaking, but remember it took less than an hour. Here’s my criteria…

First of all I’m more about just winning games than getting good computer numbers from a strong conference. That a Mississippi St benefited heavily from playing in the SEC without ever having played any of the top 5 teams (Alabama, LSU, UGA, UF, Texas A&M) until two weeks made no sense to me.

I look at it this way…. beat who you play, and beat teams with good records. Conference strength still plays an implicit role, because the teams in your conference play several OOC games.  Don’t get blown out, and yes margin of victory counts, but we’ll cap it at 21.

We’ll use Alabama as my example. If anyone ever wants to see the raw numbers, just let me know.

Alabama earned total 3 points in my computer ranking here’s how.

9-0 record 9/9 wins = 1

7 wins by 21 or more pts (capped at 21) = .778

2 wins over teams with better than 75% winning percentage = .222

0 losses by more than 21 points = 0

Avg of AP and Coaches Poll = 1 ( I certainly feel your eyes can tell you plenty about what’s going on ).

1 + .778 + .222 + 1 – 0 = 3.

You can see how the experts rank things. Yes 6 computer polls that rank Florida State outside the top 15  makes perfect sense to me too. Knocking on Mississippi St. again but how are they ranked in the top 25, when their best win is over 6-3 Middle Tennessee St? Oregon is 5th or worse in 5 computer polls. It apparent computers don’t watch the games.

The most questionable ranking in my poll is Louisiana Tech at 15 ahead of Oregon St. Really though is it that surprising. La Tech is 8-1 and their only loss is against a very good Texas A&M team, and Oregon St. has only 1 quality win. The Beavers and havn’t really looked all that impressive in most of their games either.

If that’s the biggest gripe I’m OK with it.

1 Alabama 3.0000
2 Oregon 2.6267
3 Kansas State 2.4756
4 Notre Dame 2.3244
5 Georgia 2.2844
6 Florida 2.2244
7 Florida State 2.0933
8 South Carolina 2.0244
9 LSU 2.0133
9 Clemson 2.0133
11 Louisville 1.8422
12 Texas A&M 1.7933
13 Oklahoma 1.7500
14 Stanford 1.6422
15 La Tech 1.6333
16 UCLA 1.5422
17 Oregon St 1.5400
18 Boise St 1.3022
19 Northern Ill 1.3000
20 Nebraska 1.2489
21 Texas 1.2089
22 Rutgers 1.1600
23 San Diego State 1.1000
24 Ohio 1.0000
24 Michigan 1.0000

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