Quantcast

«

»

Mar
11
2012

(Final) ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for March 11, 2012

Selection Sunday is upon us. Who’s who’s out in the ACC and where will they be seeded? Before we take one last look at our NCAA Bubble Analysis for the ACC, there is still the matter of an ACC Championship to be decided between Florida State and North Carolina is what should be a great game. Check out the ACC Digital Network’s recap of the ACC tournament semi-finals and a preview of Sunday’s Finals.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(3) North Carolina (29-4) (15-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (5) Michigan St., * (20) Wisconsin, * (37) Long Beach St., (48) Texas, (61) Miami, * (49) NC State, (52) Virginia, (61) Miami, (60) NC State, (52) Virginia,  * (4) Duke, *(49) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Unless UNC has another 33 point loss to Florida State, the Heels should have locked up a number 1 seed in the NCAAs. Kansas losing early in the Big 12 tournament helped.

(5) Duke (27-6) (14-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (58) Belmont, * (5) Michigan St., (62) Davidson, * (10) Michigan, * (6) Kansas, * (27) Colorado St., (68) Washington, (52) Virginia, *(3) UNC, * (49) NC State, (84) Tennessee, (97) Penn, * (22) Florida State

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke hasn’t played what I would call a solid game Feb 23, when they won at Florida State. They good news is that they are locked into a 2 seed.

(22) Florida State (23-9) (13-4) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (55) UCF, (72) UMASS, * (3) North Carolina, * (4) Duke, (52) Virginia , (61) Miami, (49) NC State, (52) Virginia, * (4) Duke, (61) Miami

Bas Losses –  (153) Clemson, * (241) Boston College

Notes – If FSU can beat North Carolina Sunday, I think they can slide into a 3 seed. That would be 4 RPI top 5 wins, pretty impressive stuff. A 5 seed is as low as I can see FSU sliding even with a loss. 

(52) Virginia (22-9) (9-8) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (66) Drexel, * (10) Michigan, (48) Oregon, (81) LSU,  (61) Miami, (49) NC State, (83) George Mason

Bad Losses –  (112) TCU, (116) Virginia Tech, * (153) Clemson

Notes – On the strength of finishing 4th in the ACC behind 3 top 20 teams, UVA is in the Big Dance. The resume isn’t really that strong, but in a down Bubble year in doesn’t have to be.

Bubble But In

(49) NC State (22-12) (11-8)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (48) Texas, (87) Princeton, (61) Miami, (61) Miami, (88) St. Bonaventure, (52) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (195) Georgia Tech, (153) Clemson

Notes –  Had NC State knocked off UNC, I would have given them lock status, but still by winning two games in the ACCT including Virgina I think they’ve fought their into the NCAAs. Mark Gottfried has done a great job in his first year at NC State.

Bubble But Out

(61) Miami (19-12) (10-8)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (72) UMASS, * (4) Duke, * (22) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Last week I thought Miami with 1 ACCT win would be on the bubble, but sneak in. The worst thing that could have happened to Miami was NC State’s  run in the ACCT. I think Miami is a tournament quality team, but there may not be enough overall quality wins.

No others Considered


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>