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Mar
04
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for March 4, 2012

Congratulations to North Carolina for winning the ACC’s regular season. After all the struggles the questions UNC is right back where people felt they would be. That is in position for a number 1 Seed in the NCAA tournament. So how many teams the ACC gets in will depend on the ACC tournament, and I’ll tell you how many ACCT wins will be required for our bubble teams..  

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) North Carolina (27-4) (14-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (3) Michigan St., * (22) Wisconsin, * (35) Long Beach St., (52) Texas, (51) Miami, (60) NC State, * (39) Virginia, (51) Miami, (60) NC State, *(50) Virginia,  * (5) Duke, * (50) Virginia, (99) Maryland (99) Maryland

Bad Losses – None

Notes – An 18 point win at Duke really opened some eyes that UNC is a legit number one seed. The Heels are getting hot at the right time. 

(5) Duke (26-5) (13-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (58) Belmont, * (3) Michigan St., (66) Davidson, * (11) Michigan, * (6) Kansas, * (23) Colorado St., (54) Washington, * (50) Virginia, *(4) UNC, (94) Maryland, (60) NC State, (75) Tennessee, (94) Penn, (99) Maryland, (99) Maryland, * (21) Florida State

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke has a great resume, but UNC exposed them athletically much the same way Ohio State did. If Duke wins the ACCT they may get back into the number 1 seed discussion.

(21) Florida State (21-9) (12-4) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (63) UCF, (84) UMASS, * (4) North Carolina, (94) Maryland, * (5) Duke, * (50) Virginia , (55) Miami, (60) NC State, * (50) Virginia, (99) Maryland

Bas Losses –  (145) Clemson, * (245) Boston College

Notes – I was really impressed that FSU went to Virginia and won on the Cavs senior night. You just never know which Noles team will show up. They are capable of winning the ACCT.

(50) Virginia (22-8) (9-7) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (69) Drexel, * (11) Michigan, (48) Oregon, (89) LSU,  (51) Miami, (60) NC State, (77) George Mason, (99) Maryland

Bad Losses –  (101) TCU, (113) Virginia Tech, * (144) Clemson

Notes – If Virginia had lost at Maryland suddenly the Cavs would have been forced to win a game in the ACCT, they didn’t and have now earned a first round BYE as well. Virginia is in the Big Dance.

Bubble But In

(51) Miami (18-11) (9-7) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (84) UMASS, (99) Maryland, * (5) Duke, * (21) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I think Miami is in pretty good shape, but they probably don’t want to lose in the first round of the ACCT. 2 ACCT wins, and they are safely in, 1 ACCT win and it’s the bubble but probably OK, 0 ACCT wins and you are at the mercy of the selection committee. 

Bubble But Out

(60) NC State (20-11) (9-7)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (52) Texas, (92) Princeton, (51) Miami, (51) Miami, (97) St. Bonaventure, (99) Maryland)

Bad Losses – * (189) Georgia Tech, (145) Clemson, (106) Stanford

Notes –  I put Miami in over NC State due to the Canes higher end wins, but NC State has given themselves a chance. They have the same criteria as Miami to get in. If both win 1 game, what do you do? Take the team with the sweep or better wins?

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(99) Maryland (16-14) (6-10)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (81) Colorado, * (40) Notre Dame, (51) Miami

Bad Losses – * (189) Georgia Tech

Notes – Wow did Maryland limp to the finish line or what.

(113) Virginia Tech (15-16) (4-12)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (50) Virginia, (97) St. Bonaventure

Bad Losses – * (168) Wake Forest, * (241) Boston College, (145) Clemson

Notes – I know Virginia Tech is young, but considering the Hokies were 11-3 at one point and looked competitive against some quality non-conference opponents, this season been a big disappointment.  

(145) Clemson (16-14) (8-8)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (21) Florida State, * (50) Virginia, (60) NC State

Bad Losses – (121) Charleston, * (187) Coastal Carolina, * (193) South Carolina, (159) UTEP, * (214) Hawaii, * (241) Boston College, (113) Virginia Tech

Notes – Clemson probably needs at least 1 ACCT win to get an NIT Bid. Young team could use the post-season experience.

(168) Wake Forest (13-17) (4-12)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (88) Loyola, MD,

Bad Losses – (120) Richmond, * (180) Wofford, * (253) Arizona St.,  (145) Clemson,  (145) Clemson, (189) Georgia Tech

Notes – Did Wake Forest improve this year? I’m not sure they did, they didn’t beat a single ACC team with more than 4 conference wins.

(189) Georgia Tech (11-19) (4-12)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (59) VCU, (60) NC State, (99) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (234) Tulane, * (238) Fordham, (145) Clemson, (135) Mercer, * (168) Wake Forest, (145) Clemson, (113) Virginia Tech, * (241) Boston College

Notes – I like what Brian Gregory did this year at Georgia Tech. He recruited well and the team improved over the course of the season. 

(241) Boston College (9-21) (4-12)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – *(21) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (156) Providence, * (168) Wake Forest, *(179) Holy Cross, * (154) Penn St, *(191) Boston U, *(254) Rhode Island, * (189) Georgia Tech, (113) Virginia Tech, * (168) Wake Forest

Notes – Boston College ends up the ACCT’s 12th seed facing a hungry NC State team fighting for a NCAA bid. It could be a short visit to Atlanta for BC.


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