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Feb
26
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for February 26, 2012

The ACC still has a shot at as many as 6 NCAA teams, but that will depend on how Miami and NC State finish the season. Right now only one of them is in.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Duke (25-4) (12-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (58) Belmont, * (2) Michigan St., (66) Davidson, * (16) Michigan, * (6) Kansas, * (29) Colorado St., (49) Washington, * (39) Virginia, *(6) UNC, (94) Maryland, (67) NC State, (90) Tennessee, (93) Penn, (100) Virginia Tech, (100) Virginia Tech, (22) Florida State

Bad Losses -None

Notes – 15 top 100 wins, 3 top 6 RPI wins and you’re telling me Duke is not a number 1 seed ESPN’s Joe Lunardi? You can’t be serious.

(5) North Carolina (25-4) (12-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (2) Michigan St., * (26) Wisconsin, * (34) Long Beach St., (54) Texas, (55) Miami, (67) NC State, * (39) Virginia, (55) Miami, (67) NC State, (100) Virginia Tech, * (39) Virginia

Bad Losses – None

Notes – By this time next week we’ll know if UNC is a legit contender for a number 1 seed. If they beat Duke Saturday and they will be right in the mix going into the ACCT.

(22) Florida State (19-9) (10-4) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (63) UCF, (81) UMASS, (90) Loyola Marymount, * (5) North Carolina, (94) Maryland, * (4) Duke, * (39) Virginia , (55) Miami, (67) NC State, (100) Virginia Tech, (100) Virginia Tech

Bas Losses –  (144) Clemson, * (235) Boston College

Notes – Florida State did not have a good week losing at home to Duke then getting routed at Miami by 16. The Noles need to get things righted before they end up a double digit seed.

(39) Virginia (21-7) (8-6) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (65) Drexel, * (16) Michigan, (52) Oregon, (68) LSU,  (55) Miami, (67) NC State, (84) George Mason, (100) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (144) Clemson

Notes – Virginia has been safely in for awhile, but they haven’t done much in recent weeks to improve their seeding.

Bubble But In

(55) Miami (17-10) (8-6) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (81) UMASS, (100) Virginia Tech, * (4) Duke, * (22) Florida State

Bad Losses – (102) Maryland

Notes – Put them in the Big Dance after the Canes beat Florida State Sunday without Reggie Johnson. Their work is not done yet though. The Canes want to be at least 9-7 heading into the ACC tournament. This week is a game at NC State then at home against Boston College.

Bubble But Out

(67) NC State (18-11) (7-7)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (51) Texas, (97) Princeton, (55) Miami

Bad Losses – * (176) Georgia Tech, (144) Clemson, (106) Stanford

Notes –  Due to such a weak bubble nationally, if NC State can beat Miami and win at Virginia Tech this week, they may be able to get back on the good side of the bubble. Right now they are out…

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(100) Virginia Tech (15-14) (4-10)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (39) Virginia

Bad Losses – (102) Maryland * (161) Wake Forest, * (235) Boston College

Notes – 2 more losses this past week by a total of 7 points. What else is new for Virginia Tech? They had Duke on the ropes and let them go.

(102) Maryland (16-12) (6-8)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (83) Colorado, (41) Notre Dame, (55) Miami, (100) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – * (176) Georgia Tech

Notes – Forget the NCAAs, Maryland is playing themselves out of the NIT after losing to Georgia Tech Saturday. 

(161) Wake Forest (13-15) (4-10)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (99) Loyola, MD, (95) Yale

Bad Losses – (126) Richmond, * (171) Wofford, * (250) Arizona St. ,  (144) Clemson,  (144) Clemson, (102) Maryland

Notes – Looks who’s won 2 of their last 3, Break out the Deacs!

(144) Clemson (15-13) (7-7)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (22) Florida State, (39) Virginia, (67) NC State

Bad Losses – (110) Charleston, * (177) Coastal Carolina, * (185) South Carolina,  (136) UTEP, * (194) Hawaii, * (235) Boston College, (102) Maryland 

Notes – Clemson is playing well recently. If they even would have went 4-3 in their 7 bad losses, they would be on the NCAA bubble.

(176) Georgia Tech (10-18) (3-11)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (70) VCU, (56) NC State

Bad Losses – * (205) Tulane, * (220) Fordham,  (144) Clemson, (123) Mercer, * (161) Wake Forest, (102) Maryland, (144) Clemson

Notes – Brian Gregory still has his guys playing hard as the Jackets pulled off a 63-61 upset win over Maryland this past week.

(235) Boston College (8-20) (3-11)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – *(19) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (158) Providence, * (161) Wake Forest, *(163) Holy Cross, (133) Penn St, *(186) Boston U, *(251) Rhode Island, * (176) Georgia Tech, (102) Maryland, * (161) Wake Forest

Notes – Rematch of the ACC Pillow fight with Georgia Tech is Wednesday night!



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