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Feb
19
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for February 19, 2012

For the first time in a couple of weeks the number of ACC teams I’ve had in the NCAA tournament has dropped from 6 to 5 teams.  Who dropped out? Take a look below.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Duke (23-4) (10-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (69) Belmont, * (2) Michigan St., (76) Davidson, * (14) Michigan, * (5) Kansas, * (30) Colorado St., (53) Washington, * (42) Virginia, (94) Maryland, *(6) UNC, (94) Maryland, (56) NC State

Bad Losses -None

Notes – A 20 point comeback at home against NC State keeps Duke in line for a number 1 seed. They also were pretty sharp in a route of Boston College.

(6) North Carolina (23-4) (10-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (2) Michigan St., * (23) Wisconsin, * (35) Long Beach St., * (51) Texas, * (46) Miami, (56) NC State, (94) Maryland, * (42) Virginia, *(46) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Can UNC still get a number 1 seed? With road games at NC State, UVA, and Duke plus the ACC Tournament, it can still be done.

(20) Florida State (19-7) (10-2) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (53) UCF, (89) UMASS, (90) Loyola Marymount, * (6) North Carolina, (94) Maryland, * (4) Duke, * (42) Virginia , *(46) Miami, (56) NC State

Bas Losses – * (162) Clemson, (226) Boston College

Notes – FSU was very impressive dismantling NC State in Raleigh. The Noles are good enough to get to the Final 4 or Elite 8, but inconsistent enough to be a first round NCAA exit.

(42) Virginia (20-6) (7-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (74) Drexel, * (14) Michigan, (61) Oregon, (63) LSU, * (46) Miami, (56) NC State, (84) George Mason, (94) Maryland

Bad Losses – (107) TCU, (103) Virginia Tech, * (162) Clemson

Notes – A disappointing loss at Clemson was followed by 71-44 win against Maryland that saw the Cavs only give up 13 2nd half points. UVA is not out of the woods yet though. They have to play at a Virginia Tech team that they lost to already and against UNC this week.

Bubble But In

(46) Miami (16-9) (7-5) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-5)

Good Wins – (89) UMASS, (94) Maryland, * (4) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Miami is in the big dance today, but barely. They couldn’t get another signature win when they lost to UNC at home this past week. They have to play at Maryland then get FSU at home this week.  Win both and Miami is a 7-8 seed, lose both and they are out.

Bubble But Out

(56) NC State (18-9) (7-5)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (51) Texas, (94) Maryland, (46) Miami

Bad Losses – * (172) Georgia Tech

Notes –  NC State’s week could not have went worse. They blew a 20 point lead at Duke, then had a lifeless home performance against Florida State in a 14 point loss. To add insult to injury referee Karl Hess threw two NC State legends Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta out of the game against FSU. Hey Karl I wouldn’t get near Raleigh anytime soon.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(94) Maryland (15-11) (5-7)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (73) Colorado, (37) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Maryland has run out of time to make realistic run at the NCAA Tournament. A 27 point loss at Virginia was the final nail in the coffin.

(103) Virginia Tech (15-12) (4-8)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (42) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (159) Wake Forest, * (226) Boston College

Notes – Very quietly Virginia Tech has won 3 of their last 5, and that includes a last second win over Georgia Tech on Saturday.

(159) Wake Forest (12-15) (3-10)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (99) Loyola, MD

Bad Losses – (143) Richmond, * (187) Wofford, * (236) Arizona St. , * (162) Clemson, * (162) Clemson

Notes – Wake Forest avoided the ACC’s cellar by beating Georgia Tech on Tuesday. I’m still not sold on Jeff Bzdelik as head coach, not at all.

(162) Clemson (13-13) (5-7)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (19) Florida State, (42) Virginia

Bad Losses – (115) Charleston, * (183) Coastal Carolina, * (180) South Carolina, * (147) UTEP, * (193) Hawaii, * (226) Boston College, (103) Virginia Tech

Notes – A good goal for Clemson is get to the NIT. They still have a shot at it, if they can finish over .500 for the season.

(172) Georgia Tech (9-17) (2-10)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (70) VCU, (56) NC State

Bad Losses – * (199) Tulane, * (228) Fordham, * (162) Clemson, (113) Mercer, (103) Virginia tech, * (159) Wake Forest

Notes – The Jackets have lost 7 games by 7 points or less. The Jackets just don’t know how to win games right now, and why can’t Glen Rice Jr. stay out of trouble?

(226) Boston College (8-19) (3-9)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – *(19) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (167) Providence, (159) Wake Forest, *(171) Holy Cross, (133) Penn St, *(189) Boston U, *(265) Rhode Island, * (172) Georgia Tech, (103) Virginia Tech

Notes – If BC can finish the ACC season not in last place, I would consider the season a success for them. They have a 1 game lead on Georgia Tech.



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