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Feb
12
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for February 12, 2012

More jockeying for position this week…. How are things shaping with selection Sunday quickly approaching?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Duke (21-4) (8-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (79) Belmont, * (3) Michigan St., (70) Davidson, * (15) Michigan, * (5) Kansas, * (30) Colorado St., (73) Washington, * (34) Virginia, (89) Maryland, (94) Virginia Tech, *(8) UNC, (89) Maryland

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke’s resume is unreal. Once you get past Syracuse, Kentucky and Missouri, explain how the Blue Devils aren’t a #1 seed if selections were today?

(8) North Carolina (21-4) (8-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (3) Michigan St., * (24) Wisconsin, * (42) Long Beach St., * (48) Texas, * (37) Miami, (94) Virginia Tech, *(50) NC State, (89) Maryland, * (34) Virginia

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Had UNC beat Duke at home rather than blow a 10 point lead with under 3 minutes, they would have got my #1 seed vote instead of Duke.

(29) Florida State (17-7) (8-2) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (59) UCF, (70) UMASS, (94) Virginia Tech, * (8) North Carolina, (89) Maryland, * (4) Duke, * (34) Virginia , *(37) Miami

Bas Losses – * (177) Clemson, (219) Boston College

Notes – Inexcusable loss to BC costs Florida State 2-3 seeding positions this week.

(34) Virginia (19-5) (6-4) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (83) Drexel, * (15) Michigan, (64) Oregon, (76) LSU, * (37) Miami, * (50) NC State, (99) George Mason

Bad Losses – (108) TCU

Notes – I like Mike Scott and the Cavs team, but we are starting to see the limitations of this squad.

Bubble But In

(37) Miami (15-8) (6-4) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (70) UMASS, (89) Maryland, * (4) Duke, (94) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No shame in losing at Florida State, but the resume could use another signature win. North Carolina heads to Miami this week. A 4-2 ACC finish would get the Canes in the Big Dance, I believe.

(50) NC State (18-7) (7-3) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (48) Texas, (93) St. Bonaventure, (89) Maryland, (37) Miami

Bad Losses – (145) Georgia Tech

Notes –  NC State plays at Duke then has Florida State at home. Wolfpack need a 1-1 week or they slip off the bubble.

Bubble But Out

NONE

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(89) Maryland (14-10) (4-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (74) Colorado, (40) Notre Dame, (94) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I just can’t give the Terps a serious look until they get to .500 in the conference.

(94) Virginia Tech (14-11) (3-7)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (93) St. Bonaventure, (34) Virginia

Bad Losses – (146) Wake Forest, *(219) Boston College

Notes – Good discussion on twitter between myself @HokieGuru and @akosnitzky on twitter whether Seth Greenberg will make it through the season. We agreed he does, but his seat will be real hot next year.

(145) Georgia Tech (9-15) (2-8)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (84) VCU, (50) NC State, (98) Georgia

Bad Losses – * (182) Tulane, * (232) Fordham, * (177) Clemson, (101) Mercer

Notes – Loser of the Wake Forest\Georgia Tech game this week earns the right to be called the ACC’s worst team.

(146) Wake Forest (11-14) (2-9)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (80) Loyola, MD, (94) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (138) Richmond, * (190) Wofford, * (229) Arizona St. , * (177) Clemson, * (177) Clemson

Notes – I think we are at a point after nearly 2 seasons to ask what the heck is Jeff Bzdelik doing at Wake Forest?

(177) Clemson (12-12) (4-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (29) Florida State

Bad Losses – (114) Charleston, * (184) Coastal Carolina, * (178) South Carolina, * (169) UTEP, * (203) Hawaii, * (219) Boston College

Notes – If Clemson had even 1 player that could consistently get to the basket they would be so much better.

(219) Boston College (8-17) (3-8)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (94) Virginia Tech, *(29) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (154) Providence, (146) Wake Forest, *(197) Holy Cross, (128) Penn St, *(169) Boston U, *(254) Rhode Island, * (145) Georgia Tech

Notes – Despite their overall record, Steve Donahue has the Eagles playing much better. A stunning win over Florida State was followed up by a last second loss at Virginia Tech, where Eagles outplayed the Hokies for much of the game.


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