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Feb
05
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for February 5, 2012

Three weeks ago the ACC looked like a three bid league, now it could be six. We are are long way from things being settled. How is it looking this week?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(2) Duke (19-4) (6-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (91) Belmont, * (6) Michigan St., * (66) Davidson, * (15) Michigan, * (9) Kansas, * (24) Colorado St., (73) Washington, * (40) Virginia, (98) Maryland, (92) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Another physical frontline player has their way with Duke inside. This time it was Miami’s Reggie Johnson going for 27 points, as the Canes defeated the Blue Devils. The interior defense is becoming a real problem for Duke.

(7) North Carolina (19-3) (6-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (6) Michigan St., (29) Wisconsin, (37) Long Beach St., (66) Texas, (53) Miami, (92) Virginia Tech, (55) NC State, (98) Maryland

Bad Losses – None

Notes – It’s apparent that North Carolina isn’t going to be good enough to just overwhelm opponents, but they have won 5 in a row.

(18) Florida State (16-6) (7-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (64) UCF, (68) UMASS, (92) Virginia Tech, * (7) North Carolina, (98) Maryland, * (2) Duke, * (40) Virginia

Bas Losses – * (169) Clemson

Notes – The February Seminoles would beat the November Seminoles by 15-20 points.

(40) Virginia (18-4) (5-3) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (86) Drexel, * (15) Michigan, (78) Oregon, (76) LSU, (53) Miami, (55) NC State

Bad Losses – (101) TCU

Notes – The Cavaliers defense keeps them in any game they play. Their offense keeps just about any opponent in the game.

Bubble But In

(53) Miami (14-7) (5-3) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (68) UMASS, (98) Maryland, * (2) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – A win at Duke can do wonders for a NCAA resume.

(55) NC State (17-7) (6-3) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (66) Texas, (93) St. Bonaventure, (98) Maryland, (53) Miami

Bad Losses – (148) Georgia Tech

Notes – Can I include Miami in the field, and not NC State when the Wolfpack won at Miami? I don’t think so, but the Pack are one of the last 4 in.

Bubble But Out

(98) Maryland (13-9) (3-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (71) Colorado, (56) Notre Dame, (92) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Maryland’s win over Notre Dame looks better every week, too bad there’s not much else to add to it.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(92) Virginia Tech (13-10) (2-6)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (93) St. Bonaventure, (40) Virginia

Bad Losses – (137) Wake Forest, *(238) Boston College

Notes – Virginia Tech has lost 7 games by 10 points or less.

(137) Wake Forest (11-12) (2-7)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (89) Loyola, MD, (92) Virginia tech

Bad Losses – (131) Richmond, * (169) Wofford, * (214) Arizona St. , * (169) Clemson

Notes – Remember when I said Wake Forest was improving? Yeah about that.

(148) Georgia Tech (9-14) (2-7)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (85) VCU, (55) NC State

Bad Losses – * (171) Tulane, * (223) Fordham, * (169) Clemson

Notes – The Jackets snapped their 6 game losing streak with a win over Boston College. They get NC State at home this week. Georgia Tech beat them earlier this season.

(169) Clemson (11-11) (3-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (18) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (125) Charleston, (119) Coastal Carolina, * (158) South Carolina, * (186) UTEP, * (204) Hawaii, * (238) Boston College

Notes – Predictably Clemson went on the road this past week and lost both games against Virgina and Virginia Tech. The Tigers like it much better at home.

(238) Boston College (7-16) (2-7)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (92) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (131) Providence, (137) Wake Forest, *(215) Holy Cross, (143) Penn St, *(187) Boston U, *(243) Rhode Island, (148) Georgia Tech

Notes – Remember when BC was 2-1 in the ACC? That was a long time ago.


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