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Jan
29
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for January 29, 2011

Do you realize  there’s only a bit more than month until selection Sunday. If you’re going to make a move you better make it soon.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

I’m also adding my projected seedings this week.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(2) Duke (18-3) (5-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (96) Belmont, * (4) Michigan St., * (66) Davidson, * (20) Michigan, * (6) Kansas, * (24) Colorado St., (72) Washington, * (38) Virginia, (97) Maryland

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Coach K was not happy after a sloppy win over St. Johns.

(7) North Carolina (18-3) (5-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (4) Michigan St., (26) Wisconsin, (33) Long Beach St., (65) Texas, (58) Miami, (83) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Tar Heels cruised in a couple of home games this week against NC State and Georgia Tech.

(23) Florida State (14-6) (5-1) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (54) UCF, (73) UMASS, (83) Virginia Tech, * (7) North Carolina, (97) Maryland, * (2) Duke

Bas Losses – (173) Clemson

Notes – The Noles can work themselves into a top 4 seed before the season is over.

(38) Virginia (17-3) (4-2) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (87) Drexel, (94) Drake,  * (20) Michigan, (53) Oregon, (78) LSU, (58) Miami, (60) NC State

Bad Losses – (103) TCU

Notes – Virginia got a very nice win at NC State. Looks like they’ve managed the loss of starting C Assane Sene just fine.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out

(58) Miami (12-7) (3-3)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (54) UMASS,

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Miami needs some quality wins real bad.

(60) NC State (15-7) (4-3)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (65) Texas, (91) St. Bonaventure, (97) Maryland, (58) Miami, (99) Princeton

Bad Losses – (158) Georgia Tech

Notes – NC State is playing themselves right out of the NCAA’s. Losing at UNC is ok, losing to UVA at home when you need to bolster your resume is not. If the Pack lose at BC or against Wake Forest this week, their chances of reaching the Big are very slim.

(97) Maryland (13-7) (3-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (76) Colorado, (82) Notre Dame, (83) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Terps need a big time win like right now. They have to go at least go 1-1 this week with games at Miami and at home against UNC.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(89) Virginia Tech (12-9) (1-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (91) St. Bonaventure, (95) Norfolk St., (38) Virginia

Bad Losses – (124) Wake Forest, *(225) Boston College

Notes – The Hokies are now relegated to the role of spoiler.

(124) Wake Forest (11-10) (2-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (74) Loyola, MD, (92) Nebraska, (83) Virginia tech

Bad Losses – (112) Richmond, (161) Wofford, * (220) Arizona St. , * (173) Clemson

Notes – The Deacs have hit a wall recently. They are struggling.

(158) Georgia Tech (8-13) (1-6)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (86) VCU, (60) NC State

Bad Losses – * (189) Tulane, (113) Mercer, * (212) Fordham, * (173) Clemson

Notes – Georgia Tech looks like the worst team in the ACC.

(173) Clemson (11-9) (3-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (23) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (127) Charleston, * (138) Coastal Carolina, * (167) South Carolina, * (157) UTEP, * (214) Hawaii, * (225) Boston College

Notes – The Tigers are a respectable 3-3 in the ACC, and play well at home, but they have to head to Virginia and Virginia Tech this week.

(225) Boston College (7-14) (2-4)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (83) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (124) Wake Forest, *(223) Holy Cross, (129) Penn St, *(176) Boston U, (131) Providence, *(258) Rhode Island

Notes – Next Saturday, get ready for the pillow fight between Georgia Tech and Boston College.



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