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Jan
22
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for January 22, 2011

For you young folks out there, that have watched ACC basketball the last 7-8 years, it wasn’t always Duke, UNC and one other team that was pretty good that year. Years ago the conference ran 6-8 really quality teams deep. Every game was a war, and every game had ACC Title and NCAA implications. This week Florida State and NC State proved the conference has at least 5 NCAA worthy teams along with Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, RealtimeRpi.Com

Locks

(2) Duke (16-3) (4-1)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (97) Belmont, * (4) Michigan St., * (50) Davidson, * (25) Michigan, * (9) Kansas, * (21) Colorado St., (81) Washington, * (36) Virginia

Bad Losses -None

Notes – The Dukies are still in good position for a number 1 NCAA seed, but the way the frontline gets pushed around by the more physical teams inside has to be a concern. That’s how Florida State beat Duke.

(11) North Carolina (16-3) (3-1)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (4) Michigan St., (40) Wisconsin, (42) Long Beach St., (68) Texas, (65) Miami, (89) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

You saw both North Carolina teams on display at Virginia Tech. In the 1st half UNC looked confused and disinterested. In the 2nd half they look like a national title contender. Big home game with NC State this week.

(24) Florida State (13-6) (3-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (59) UCF, (64) UMASS, (89) Virginia Tech, * (11) North Carolina, (95) Maryland, * (2) Duke

Bas Losses – (110) Princeton, (171) Clemson

Notes – The Seminoles are the ACC’s hottest team – FACT.

(36) Virginia (15-3) (2-2)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – Drexel (87), Drake (91),  * (25) Michigan, (56) Oregon, (73) LSU, (65) Miami

Bad Losses – (113) TCU

Notes – Virginia has built plenty of NCAA credibility, which is good because the loss at home Virginia Tech was pretty ugly.

Bubble But In

(55) NC State (15-5) (4-1)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good WIns – (68) Texas, (83) St. Bonaventure, (95) Maryland, (65) Miami

Bad Losses – (150) Georgia Tech

Notes – The Wolfpack got a nice road win at Miami. The Wolfpack are still lacking a signature win, but I think they’ve done enough to get into the Big Dance this week.

Bubble But Out

 (65) Miami (10-7) (1-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (64) UMASS,

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Losing to NC State at home, really puts Miami in a bind. Even on the road the Canes can’t afford to lose to Boston College or Georgia Tech this week.

(95) Maryland (12-6) (2-2)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (61) Colorado, (100) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Terps are looking every bit the NIT team. Nice record, can’t win on the road. Maryland are dangerously close to dropping off the bubble list.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(89) Virginia Tech (12-7) (1-4)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (83) St. Bonaventure, (77) Norfolk St., (36) Virginia

Bad Losses – (224) Boston College

Notes – Just about when we are ready to give up on Virginia Tech, they go to Virginia and win. If they defeat BYU and can win at Maryland, I’d put them back on the bubble.

(101) Wake Forest (11-8) (2-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (85) Loyola, MD, (98) Nebraska, (99) Yale,  (89) Virginia tech

Bad Losses – * (223) Arizona St. , * (178) Wofford

Notes – Do you realize Wake Forest has 4 top 100 RPI Wins this season? Baby steps…

(150) Georgia Tech (8-11) (1-4)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (86) VCU, (55) NC State

Bad Losses – * (205) Tulane, (108) Mercer, * (226) Fordham, * (171) Clemson

Notes – The Yellow Jackets have had trouble scoring all season. They averaged 50 points a game last week.

(171) Clemson (10-9) (2-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (24) Florida State

Bad Losses – (105) Charleston, * (153) Coastal Carolina, * (198) South Carolina, (143) UTEP, (236) Hawaii, (224) Boston College

Notes – No NCAAs this year for Clemson, but they have a couple of more upsets in them.

(224) Boston College (7-12) (2-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (89) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – *(199) Holy Cross, (140) Penn St, *(170) Boston U, (126) Providence, *(276) Rhode Island

Notes – Boston College is not in last place in the ACC, and that’s good enough for this season.



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