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Jan
16
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for January 16, 2011

If the next month and half are going to be anything like this past week, it’s going to a wild ride in the ACC this year. The ACC is going to fluctuate from having as few 3 NCAA teams to maybe having as many 6 depending on that week’s result. Mid-Week I was looking at 3 teams, by the end of the weekend it was maybe 5. Strap in the next few weeks, this will be fun.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, RealtimeRpi.Com

Locks

(2) Duke (15-2) (3-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (86) Belmont, * (6) Michigan St., * (40) Davidson, * (31) Michigan, * (20) Kansas, * (23) Colorado St., (93) Washington, * (35) Virginia

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Good solid week for Duke. They beat Virginia and won on the road at Clemson. They don’t blow you away they just beat you.

(18) North Carolina (15-3) (2-1)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (6) Michigan St., (55) Wisconsin, (56) Long Beach St., (64) Texas, (61) Miami

Bad Losses – None

The Heels better regroup quick. That was an embarrassing loss in Tallahassee.

(35) Virginia (14-2) (2-1)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – Drexel (94), Drake (97),  * (31) Michigan, (49) Oregon, (73) LSU, (61) Miami

Bad Losses – (128) TCU

Mike Scott is probably leading ACC POY of race. With a fairly light schedule ahead, at Georgia Tech then home against Virginia Tech, the Cavs need to show they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat.

Bubble But In

(47) Florida State (11-6) (2-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (68) UCF, (62) UMASS, (84) Virginia Tech, (18) North Carolina

Bas Losses – (123) Princeton, (166) Clemson

Notes – Florida State unleashed a couple of months of frustration in their blowout of North Carolina. They rocketed into the top 50 of the RPI after a strong week that also included a road win at Virginia Tech.

Bubble But Out

(58) NC State (13-5) (2-1)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good WIns – (64) Texas, (78) St. Bonaventure, (89) Maryland, (100) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (137) Georgia Tech

Notes – It was tough leaving NC State out of the field this week, but you just can’t lose on your home floor to Georgia Tech. They did followup that loss with a nice win at Wake Forest.

(61) Miami (9-6) (0-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (62) UMASS, (90) Charlotte

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No shame losing at North Carolina, but Miami needs to make a move now starting with home games against Clemson and NC State.

(89) Maryland (12-4) (2-1)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (65) Colorado, (100) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Terps took take care of business this week beating Wake Forest and Georgia Tech at home. A game with Temple on Saturday is a win the Terps could use to bolster that resume.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(84) Virginia Tech (11-6) (0-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (99) Oklahoma St., (78) St. Bonaventure, (77) Norfolk St., (99) Oklahoma St.

Bad Losses – (213) Boston College

Notes – The Hokies are reeling. @HokieGuru asks “Where do the Hokies go from here?”

(100) Wake Forest (10-7) (1-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (88) Loyola, MD, (84) Virginia tech

Bad Losses – * (186) Arizona St. , * (212) Wofford

Notes – The Deacs are better, but the NCAAs aren’t realistic this year.

(137) Georgia Tech (8-9) (1-2)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (83) VCU, (58) NC State

Bad Losses – * (215) Tulane, (117) Mercer, (187) Fordham

Notes – Brian Gregory has the Yellow Jackets playing well, but there just isn’t much talent in Atlanta. The win at NC State was a but of stunner, and shows the progress they’ve made.

(166) Clemson (9-8) (1-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (47) Florida State

Bad Losses – (131) Coastal Carolina, * (184) South Carolina, (141) UTEP, (237) Hawaii, (212) Boston College

Notes – Just as the Tigers were building some momentum, they lost at Boston College.

(213) Boston College (7-10) (2-1)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (84) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – *(160) Holy Cross, (140) Penn St, *(195) Boston U, (108) Providence, *(270) Rhode Island

Notes – I said last week Boston College was going to beat somebody. Today they are tied for the 2nd place in the ACC. The young Eagles are rapidly improving.


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