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Jan
08
2012

ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for January 9, 2011

NCAA tournament selections are not for 2 months, but that doesn’t mean it’s not too early to start tracking the ACC teams on a week by week basis. Especially since as many 8 ACC teams have the ability to play their way into the 3rd, 4th and 5th position in the ACC Standings. The ACC at best will land 5 teams in the Big Dance, and maybe only 4. Only UNC and Duke can really feel safe, though Virginia is getting very close.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, RealtimeRpi.Com

Locks

(3) Duke (13-2) (1-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (97) Belmont, * (5) Michigan St., * (38) Davidson, * (32) Michigan, * (22) Kansas, * (29) Colorado St., (80) Washington

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke is playing for a 1 or 2 seed in the Big Dance. Recent Temple loss and struggles against Georgia Tech raising some doubts about this team defensively.

(12) North Carolina (14-2) (1-0)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (5) Michigan St., (64) Wisconsin * (23), Long Beach St. (74) Texas

Bad Losses – None

For UNC it’s about focus, but they can be as good as they want to be.

(37) Virginia (14-1) (1-0)

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (32) Michigan, (62) Oregon, (72) LSU, (59) Miami

Bad Losses – (116) TCU

The Cavs have quietly built a very credible resume that includes some success in the non-conference season.

Bubble But In

(58) NC State (12-4) (1-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good WIns – (76) Texas, (93) St. Bonaventure, (100) Maryland

Bad Losses – None

The Wolpack would barely sneak in. They’ve played a solid non-conference schedule and have no bad losses.

Bubble But Out

(39) Virginia Tech (11-4) (0-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (93) St. Bonaventure, (61) Norfolk St.

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Despite a nice RPI, there isn’t a single major conference OOC win for the Hokies. There are two wins over Oklahoma St. but the slumping Cowboys aren’t helping the Hokies. Losing at Wake Forest this week hurts too and would make the Hokies one of the last teams out if selections were today. Sound familiar?

(59) Miami (9-5) (0-1)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (75) UMASS, (83) Charlotte

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Miami would be in had they knocked off Virginia in Charlottesville. Today they would be just out.

(87) Florida State (9-6) (0-1)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (73) UCF, (75) UMASS

Bas Losses – (129) Princeton, (164) Clemson

Notes – The Noles would get my vote as the ACC’s most disappointing team. Critical early season game at Virginia Tech upcoming this week. The Noles would be on the Bubble list but as opposed to Virginia Tech and Miami they would be way down the pecking order.

(90) Wake Forest (10-5) (1-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (95) Yale, * (39) Virginia tech

Bad Losses – (197) Arizona St. (107) Richmond, (174) Wofford

Notes – Nice turnaround for the Deacs after last year’s disastrous season. Some ugly losses dot the schedule, and that keeps them from being seriously considered. It was a nice home victory this past weekend over Virginia Tech.

(100) Maryland (10-4) (0-1)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (65) Colorado

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Terps have a low RPI, but they have something few ACC Teams have a major conference OOC win in Colorado. There’s also have a nice win over (104) Notre Dame, which will look better as the season continues. Don’t sleep on the Terps, especially with a player like Terrell Stoglin.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(154) Georgia Tech (7-8) (0-1)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (91) VCU

Bad Losses – (182) Tulane, (122) Mercer, (203) Fordham

Notes – You really don’t want to lose to Georgia Tech if you’re an ACC bubble team.

(164) Clemson (9-6) (1-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (87) Florida State

Bad Losses – (124) Coastal Carolina, (179) South Carolina, (143) UTEP, (282) Hawaii

Notes – Clemson did so much damage to themselves in the non-conference, they likely can’t recover, but this is a dangerous team particularly in LittleJohn just ask Florida State.

(251) Boston College (5-10) (0-1)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (152) Holy Cross, (125) Penn St, (222) Boston U, (127) Providence, (250) Rhode Island

Notes – BC is going to beat somebody, just don’t let your team be the one.


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